Time of emergence of economic impacts of climate change

Abstract We introduce the concept of time emergence economic impacts (ToEI), which identifies initial moment when climate change impact signal exceeds a previously defined threshold past output shocks in given geographic area. compute ToEI using probabilistic projections and functions from three integrated assessment models change: DICE, RICE CLIMRISK. Our results demonstrate that, terms business-as-usual carbon emissions scenario, global economy could reach its by 2095. Regional highlight areas that are likely to sooner, namely Western Europe 2075, India 2083, Africa 2085. also explore local-scale variations demonstrating for example, Paris already reached around 2020, while Shanghai will it 2080. conclude methodology can be applied varying scales sufficient historical data available. Moreover, unprecedented 21st century may experienced even economically developed regions US Europe. Finally, moderate stringent mitigation policies delay extreme decades Latin America, Middle East, Japan, two India, Europe, US, one decade Africa. used policymakers interested implementing timely prevent potentially large due change.